Introduction: The Claim That Got Everyone Talking

Former President Donald Trump recently declared that Thanksgiving dinner is “way cheaper” this year, citing a 25% price drop thanks to Walmart’s holiday basket deal. He posted about it on Truth Social and mentioned it during campaign stops, framing it as proof that Americans are finally catching a break. Which is adorable—like when your uncle takes credit for the turkey because he brought the napkins.

But is Thanksgiving really cheaper? Or is this one of those deals where you save money because they removed half the stuff you actually wanted? Let’s dig in—because nothing says holiday cheer like fact-checking political claims.

What Trump Said and Why It Matters

On November 5, Trump wrote:

“Walmart just announced that Prices for a Thanksgiving Dinner is now down 25% since under Sleepy/Crooked Joe Biden, in 2024.”

Translation: “I fixed Thanksgiving. You’re welcome.” Because nothing screams economic policy like a discounted Butterball turkey. He repeated similar claims at rallies, using Walmart’s promotion as evidence that inflation is under control—at least when it comes to stuffing your face.

Politically, this matters because food prices are a hot-button issue. Voters notice when groceries cost more than their car payment. So, Trump pointing to a big discount sounds like a win—until you look at the fine print.

The Reality Behind Walmart’s Basket

Yes, Walmart’s basket is about $40, down from $55 last year. Sounds great, right? Except this year’s basket has fewer items and different brands. It’s like saying your gym membership is cheaper—because they took out the weights.

• 2025 basket: 15 items, including a 13.5-pound Butterball turkey, fresh cranberries, and store-brand stuffing.
• 2024 basket: 21 items, including sweet potatoes, pecan pie, and Ocean Spray cranberry sauce.

So, if you want dessert, guess what? That’s extra. Happy Thanksgiving—now with 30% less joy. The advertised 25% savings only works if you accept Walmart’s curated menu. Compare identical items year-over-year, and the real savings drop to about 6.5%.

Inflation and Grocery Prices: The Bigger Picture

Here’s the kicker: the Consumer Price Index for food-at-home is still up 2.7% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So while Walmart’s basket feels like a win, the rest of your grocery bill is still doing CrossFit—getting bigger every month.

Egg prices? Up. Dairy? Up. Even canned goods are flexing. So unless you plan to eat only what Walmart picked for you, your Thanksgiving feast isn’t magically cheaper. It’s just… curated. Like a Spotify playlist, but for carbs.

Historical Thanksgiving Costs: A Reality Check

Let’s zoom out. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation:

• 2021: Average Thanksgiving meal cost $53.31.
• 2022: Jumped to $64.05 (inflation said “hold my beer”).
• 2023: Dropped slightly to $61.17.
• 2024: Around $55–$60, depending on brands.
• 2025: Estimated $58–$62 for a full traditional meal.

So, yes, prices dipped a little from the pandemic peak, but they’re still higher than pre-2020 levels. Trump’s claim of a massive drop? More like a polite nudge.

Consumer Behavior: How People Are Adapting

Americans aren’t just hunting for deals—they’re changing traditions. Smaller turkeys, fewer side dishes, and more potluck-style dinners are trending. Some families are swapping pecan pie for pumpkin bars because, apparently, dessert inflation is a thing now.

Retail analysts say shoppers are leaning hard into store brands and bulk buying. Translation: Thanksgiving is turning into a Costco event. Nothing says family bonding like fighting over the last 40-pound bag of potatoes.

Expert Commentary

Economists note that promotional baskets like Walmart’s are marketing tools, not economic indicators. “These deals are designed to create perception,” says retail analyst Karen Smith. “They don’t reflect overall food inflation.”

In other words, Walmart wants you to feel like you’re winning—even if you’re just skipping dessert.

Bottom Line: The Sarcastic Truth

Trump’s claim isn’t totally wrong, but it’s like bragging you lost weight because you cut off your leg. Technically true, but let’s not celebrate too hard. Overall, food prices remain high, and that “25% savings” is mostly marketing magic.

So, enjoy your cheaper Thanksgiving—just don’t ask where the sweet potatoes went.